Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are spurring concerns about new U.S. tariffs on EU exports. Such tariffs – reportedly up to 10% or more on a range of goods – could reverberate through Ireland’s FDI-dependent economy, the UK’s trade-reliant industries, and the broader European market. This analysis examines the potential fallout, from jobs with U.S. multinationals in Ireland to export-heavy Irish companies at risk, and the knock-on effects for employment in the UK and EU. We also assess how U.S. profit repatriation might hit Ireland’s corporate tax-fueled budget surplus. The goal is an executive-level overview of the challenges ahead, drawing on the latest data and expert reports.
U.S. Multinationals in Ireland – Jobs and Sectors at Stake
American companies have an outsized presence in Ireland’s economy, especially in high-value sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. As of mid-2024, over 210,000 people were directly employed by North American firms in Ireland – roughly 11% of the Irish workforce
This investment has made Ireland a European hub for pharma production and Big Tech operations. For instance, IDA Ireland reports that the information and communication technology (ICT) sector (dominated by U.S. tech giants) employed about 106,000 people as of 2021. Similarly, modern manufacturing – which includes pharmaceuticals, medical devices and chemicals – accounted for roughly 96,000 jobs while international financial services firms employed over 50,000.
The Risk
If Washington’s proposed tariffs disrupt transatlantic trade, the Irish divisions of U.S. multinationals could scale back. Recent experience shows Ireland’s tech sector is sensitive to global swings – foreign tech firms’ layoffs drove a slight decline in multinational employment in 2023. A tariff-induced drop in exports or profitability could similarly force cutbacks in Ireland. Pharmaceutical production is a particular concern, as the United States is the largest market for Irish pharma exports (about 35% of Ireland’s pharma exports in 2018 went to the U.S.). Any U.S. import duties on pharmaceuticals or medtech products would hit Ireland’s flagship plants (many U.S.-owned) and could slow hiring or output in that sector. The same goes for Ireland’s sizable ICT operations – tariffs on tech hardware or retaliatory measures could dampen expansion plans. In financial services, U.S. firms in Dublin’s IFSC (International Financial Services Centre) might be less directly exposed to goods tariffs, but a broader U.S.-EU trade war could weaken business sentiment and investment flows that those firms rely on.
Irish Exporters to the U.S. – Key Players and Tariff Exposure
It’s not just American multinationals who are at risk. Indigenous Irish exporters have built significant U.S. markets, and many could be caught in the crossfire of tariffs. As of 2023, over 900 Irish-owned companies were actively exporting to the United States, with roughly 73% of them maintaining a physical presence in the U.S. to support their sales. Ireland’s goods exports to the United States surged by 34% to €72.6bn (£60.4bn) in 2024 while its imports from the US fell slightly to €22.5bn (£18.7bn).
According to data from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO), this meant Ireland had a goods-trade surplus with the US of just over €50bn (£41.6bn), a testament to deepening transatlantic business ties.
In short, many of Ireland’s top indigenous companies – spanning agri-food, building materials, industrial and tech – have substantial U.S. exposure. They would face a dual challenge: direct tariffs on any goods they export from Ireland, and indirect effects if U.S. protectionism slows the overall demand or raises costs in their U.S. businesses. Irish government officials have flagged these risks: a trade mission to the U.S. in 2024 noted that while transatlantic trade is at record highs, rising protectionism could pose “significant challenges” for Irish firms abroad. Expect sectors like food/beverage (e.g. whiskey, dairy), speciality manufacturing, and materials to lobby hard against broad U.S. tariffs, given their reliance on the American market.
U.S. Profit Repatriation and Ireland’s Corporate Tax Windfall
Ireland’s public finances have become heavily dependent on taxes paid by U.S. multinationals – a vulnerability that tariffs or U.S. tax policy changes could lay bare. In recent years, U.S. firms have contributed roughly 40% (or more) of Ireland’s total corporate tax receipts. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council finds that about three-quarters of Ireland’s corporation tax comes from large U.S. multinationals, and just three corporate groups accounted for over 40% of corporate tax in 2022. This extreme concentration means Ireland’s exchequer is highly exposed to any decline in U.S. company profits booked in Ireland.
Thanks to booming tech and pharma profits, Ireland has enjoyed an unprecedented corporate tax windfall – pushing the budget into surplus. 2023 saw corporate tax revenues soar to about €23–24 billion, more than a quarter of total tax receipts, helping drive a €24 billion budget surplus for 2024. However, officials openly warn that this “windfall” is precarious. The Fiscal Council estimates that without the excess corporate taxes from multinationals, Ireland would actually run a deficit (around €6 billion in 2024)
In other words, the budget surplus “is being produced by a handful of foreign multinationals based on their worldwide profits”.
If U.S. trade or tax policy prompts companies to repatriate profits or shift operations out of Ireland, the impact on tax revenues would be stark. The Central Bank of Ireland and others have cautioned that U.S. fiscal reforms (such as incentives to bring intellectual property or cash home) could strip away a chunk of Ireland’s tax base. Ireland’s prime minister recently quantified the risk: losing just three key U.S. multinationals to repatriation could cost Ireland on the order of €10 billion in annual tax receipts. Indeed, “if even a few companies were to reduce corporation tax payments in Ireland, it would have large impacts,” the Fiscal Council notes soberly Tariffs alone might not directly cause U.S. firms to exit Ireland – many are here for the EU market access and talent base – but punitive U.S. measures could coincide with a broader strategic pullback.
For example, a sharp drop in export profitability due to tariffs, combined with U.S. tax incentives, might make some American boardrooms reconsider the scale of their Irish operations or at least the booking of profits here. Any significant repatriation or profit re-routing would quickly be felt in Ireland’s tax coffers. Policymakers in Dublin are keenly aware of this fiscal vulnerability: they are beginning to divert a portion of excess corporate taxes into a rainy-day fund to buffer against a sudden revenue reversal. The bottom line is that Ireland’s enviable surplus could vanish as quickly as it arrived if U.S. multinationals change course – whether due to a global minimum tax, a U.S. tax code change, or trade war pressures.
Employment and Economic Impacts in the UK and EU
Beyond Ireland, a wave of U.S. tariffs on European goods would send ripples through the broader EU economy and the UK. Europe’s export-intensive industries – and the jobs they support – are bracing for disruption if tariffs materialize:
- Europe (EU): The EU exports hundreds of billions in goods to the U.S. each year (the U.S. is the EU’s top single export market), supporting an estimated 5 million European jobs tied to those exports
- United Kingdom: Though no longer in the EU, the UK is not immune to transatlantic trade friction. The UK’s Business and Trade Secretary has warned that Britain’s heavy reliance on international trade and investment makes it “especially vulnerable” to U.S. tariffs
In summary, the introduction of new U.S. tariffs on European goods in 2025 would cast a long shadow over hiring and investment plans across the continent. Ireland’s high-value export jobs in pharma and tech are at particular risk from any transatlantic trade spat, the UK could see painful indirect effects due to its open economy, and EU manufacturing hubs (from Germany’s factories to Ireland’s labs) would face difficult adjustments. Policymakers in Dublin, London, and Brussels will be weighing contingency plans – from support packages for affected industries to intensified diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions.
Conclusion
For The Talent Journal’s readers – leaders in business and HR – the takeaway is clear: geopolitical trade actions can swiftly alter economic currents and talent demand. Ireland’s remarkable success in attracting U.S. multinationals means it must now navigate the downside of that reliance. Companies and government agencies will need to scenario-plan for a less favourable U.S.-EU trade environment, whether that means diversifying markets, localising more production in the U.S. (as Kerry Group has done), or fortifying budget buffers for a potential revenue dip.
The coming months will test Ireland, the UK, and the EU’s resilience to external shocks. The best outcome for jobs on both sides of the Atlantic would be a cooperative resolution to avoid tit-for-tat tariffs. Failing that, prudent management and agility will be required to ensure that a trade war doesn’t unravel the hard-won gains in employment and economic growth in Europe’s most exposed economies.
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